Grouse Prospects 2021

Updated August 6th 2021 - The worst grouse season in several decades

Since this article was first published in June, the situation on the moors has deteriorated significantly, to the extent that William Powell, who kindly provided the forecast for GunsOnPegs, have issued an update. In the update, which you can read here, William Powell say that "2021 will almost certainly go down as one of the worst grouse seasons in recent decades.  We probably have to go back to the mid 1990’s, to find one as bad as this one is almost certainly going to be. "

They go on to say that while there are a few bright spots amid the generally very gloomy picture"from the south of the Pennine chain right the way up to the northern Highlands." Those bright spots are, according to the update "in West Yorkshire and parts of Lancashire, parts of the North York moors and maybe a very few parts of the Eastern Highlands."

The dramatic change in fortunes has been in no small part down to the death of many of the chicks that were on the ground in June and July, owing to poor insect populations, a lack of new heather growth, and very dry conditions in June and July, causing the young birds to become stressed, a situaton that William Powell have described as "a perfect storm".

Consequently, many moors have had to cancel most, if not all of their shooting for the 2021 season. 

Writing this in the third week of June is always tempting fate, as broods of young grouse tend to go very quiet in June. This is very much led by the hen grouse who is trying to keep her brood as unobserved as possible, not least because they are ill-prepared at this age to fend off any predation. Once they become older, usually by the middle of July, they are much bigger, stronger on the wing and as a result, much better able to take care of themselves; they then become much easier to see.

Unfavourable breeding conditions for grouse

Overall, we have had a run of poor recent grouse seasons (but with exceptions), being a combination of incredibly varied weather (drought and torrential rain, plus snow) plus heather beetle and poor-quality feed. To date the weather this year has been no exception, with really heavy snow on the high ground in December/January which undoubtedly meant that many grouse had to leave their normal territories to find heather which was not covered by snow. No mean feat when so much of our heather Moorland was white!

Usually when this happens early on in the winter, this gives the grouse plenty of time to return to their home territory after the snow melts. Whilst this did occur this year to some extent, it seems that in many places once the Grouse packed up and moved to search for food, they did not return in anything like the same numbers.

However, the real “killer” came in April and May. April was nationally the coldest month on record and May was the wettest; a very poor combination for grouse, when the hen is desperate for high quality feed in April to build herself up for laying and hatching. The heather looked as dead as a dodo until late May or in some areas well into June. This was the worst that we can ever remember and almost certainly was due to the very low temperatures which are much exacerbated on elevated moorland. We consistently say how important good quality food is to get the hen grouse laying and hatching well.

The wet May also saw additional snow falling then on the hills, including during the critical mid-May period. If the average peak hatch date is 21st May, keepers are by then desperate for dry and warm weather. Instead, it was very cold, sometimes with snow and ice, and usually with an awful lot of freezing rain. This has had a horrendous effect on many moors, with often very small sized early broods and quite a few barren pairs who lost all their chicks.

Better grouse prospects on lower ground

Despite this overall pretty miserable picture, there are undoubtedly areas which have not been so affected, and there will also be parts of moors with their own considerable variation. This will almost certainly be due to topography, elevation and aspect.

In the main, we expect high lying moors or parts of moors to have done pretty badly, with perhaps quite large numbers of total failures from the first hatch, but with the real possibility of some second broods (which are obviously later and usually smaller than the first broods). Indeed, we have reports of good second broods (7-plus) which is very encouraging.

Things get much better as one comes down in elevation. The middle and lower parts of the moor should show improved broods and more of them. There is great variation (as there usually is other than in exceptional years), with quite a lot of twos and threes, but we are seeing some sevens, eights and nine chicks as well – sadly far more small than large broods. We also think that on many moors, grouse will be later this season, so probably early shooting may not be very productive, although it is an excellent way of reducing the old stock.

Not a vintage grouse year, but not all doom and gloom

In conclusion, 2021 is not going to be a vintage grouse year. It will, overall, be modest but it will not be anything like as disastrous as keepers and moorland managers were thinking back in May. Our best guess is that it will be pretty steady with some moors having really suffered from the snow and foul weather and hence likely to “enjoy” a very short season, whilst more sheltered and lower moors might well look pretty good with everything in between!

Letting-wise, despite massive uncertainty on the part of overseas visitors and therefore an almost total absence of American and continental guns this year, grouse lettings have gone incredibly well and there is very little current availability. However, if you wish to be kept up to date with this season’s grouse availability for both full teams and single pegs, please don’t hesitate to contact Will or Ollie who will be delighted to assist.

Phone – 01295 661 033
Email – info@williampowellsporting.co.uk